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The Demographic and Economic Analysis Section (DEA) in OSBM makes projections and conducts analysis to improve policy making. These projections are used for planning purposes if the policy already exists or to inform new policy decisions. The six major areas of work include:

• Population – The annual estimates of the population of North Carolina counties and municipalities are used in the distribution of state shared revenues to local governments. County and state population projections, available by age, race (white/other), and sex, are used for long range planning and extend to 2030.
• Revenue – Projections of state revenue for the General Fund, the Highway Fund, and the Highway Trust Fund are made to prepare the Governor's Budget, negotiate the final budget with the General Assembly, and prepare for any disruptive shift that would require drastic actions during budget execution.
• Expenditure – Mandatory programs use state funds without discretion. Budget projections are made for Medicaid, school enrollment, and other programs.
• Inflation – Budget planning requires some assumption of prices. OSBM projects inflation increases for various categories of goods for future planning.
• Scoring Bills – Policy proposals or legislation can have a large impact on state revenue, expenses, or the economy. The section analyzes the financial and economic implications of various proposals or bills.
• Administrative Rule Analysis – OSBM reviews the economic impact of proposed permanent agency rule changes based on the legal requirements set forth in the Administrative Procedure Act, Chapter 150B of the General Statutes, and the instructions of the State Budget Manual (see section 7).

Clients – The Governor’s Office, Cabinet and Council of State agencies, local governments, the General Assembly, and the public.

Staff – Economic and demographic projections require significant quantitative skills but also intuition into human and institutional behavior. The staff have formal training in economics, statistics, and public policy.

Staff assignments are generally grouped by the type of projection but join projects are common.

Publications

• Tax Guide – Overview of North Carolina's tax structure.
• Financial and Population Report – This report highlights the national economy and North Carolina's economy.
• Report on Rules – Summary of recent rules.

Contact
Nathan Knuffman
Office of State Budget and Management
20320 Mail Service Center
Raleigh , NC 27699-0320
Telephone: (919) 807-4700
FAX: (919) 733-0640
Email: nathan.knuffman@osbm.nc.gov